What is the likely future of the Eurozone/Greece “problem”?

Step one will be an agreement will be forged between banks, perhaps including an assortment of central banks, and Greek politicians. The only sticking point will be the portion of the debt that has been purchased by hedge funds, then insured by purchasing credit default swaps. The hedge funds will make the most money ifGreeceis forced into bankruptcy; their second best scenario is forGreeceto be able to roll-over the sovereign debt at 50¢ on the Euro. The first situation does not square with the political aspirations of the Eurozone; the second simply forceGreeceto repeat the bailout in a matter of months – 12 months at most. Will the Eurozone politicians have the stomach forGreeceto renounce the debt acquired by the hedge funds? That, along with writing down the debt to 30¢ on the Euro, would go a long way towards making possible Greek economic recovery.

Getting through step one requires the Greek government to make cuts that are well beyond what the electorate will tolerate. The downstream net result, step two, will be that Greek government will be forced to abandon some of the promises and cuts. The Eurozone will most likely tolerate that failure, as it has been doing for years.

Step three will be to return to step one. Eventually, even Greek politicians will figure out that Greece needs both jobs and a workforce that will actually work at those jobs.

But in the meantime, the very, very important outcome will be what doesn’t happen: panic. No disorderly default will mean no panic in the equities markets and no discovery that, once again, the banks and insurance companies have written so many CDSs that they are illiquid or worse. Steps one and two will buy time for the world’s economy to strengthen (absent some other grand and greedy stupidity by the banks and/or hedge funds).

All that means a gradual return of solidity to housing prices in the coastal cities of the US; it means Canada will have a not-very-severe loss of confidence in its housing market; housing prices in England,FranceandGermanywill solidify.SpainandPortugalwill continue to have high default rates, in large part because they are economically mired in the 1930s. On the other hand,China,Brazil and India will continue to prosper, though their outrageously high growth rates (echoes of “Irrational Exuberance”) will move down towards long term stable rates.

The worlds bourses/stock markets will continue to have the ups and downs that are normal; the general trend or, as economists like to call it, “drift” will remain up for the major economies.

Expect slow growth outside of China,BrazilandIndia. But slow growth is better than no growth, and much, much better than contraction.

But if step one blows up – Oh, my! Anything could happen, and the prospects for anything good are very slender.

 

 

The Bottom??

Sure looks like the bottom is in. If so, the bottom will have been hit not in 2012 but in March, 2011. This assessment is based on RMLS statistics, which differ somewhat from the Case-Shiller numbers I display in the the C-S are adjusted for seasonality. They are also two months after the fact, so in 10 days we will see the C-S numbers from December. The lag is no big deal. The housing market is larger than the GNP, so shifts in momentum take a bit of time.

Once again, the strongest markets in the Portland Metro Area were NW Washington County, down 0.9%, and Lake Oswego-West Linn, down 1.3%. The weakest markets were a three way tie between Beaverton/Aloha, down 8.8%, Tigard/Wilsonville, down 8.6% and Hillsboro/Forest Grove down 8.7%. SE Portland was within a statistical gnat’s eyelash of a tie at down 8.4%.

January saw the largest number of closings of any January since the banks destroyed the economy. That is a very hopeful sign.

Yesterday’s Housing Starts was also good news. For three consecutive months the construction industry has started more housing than anytime in the prior three years. That reflects optimism both by the builders and by the banks.

Now, if prices will start back up; if jobs creation will speed up; if our beloved congress doesn’t cut off stimulus before the job of resurrecting the economy is done, we can get back to the business of America’s business.

 

Buy Now or Wait?

Interest rates are very low now. 4% is the “normal” conventional mortgage rate. To see what that means for monthly payment, look at the chart below. Things change a bit for mortgages above $400,000, so-called “Jumbo” loans, so I have not included them. You’ll note the difference a change to 5% interest makes: more than enough for a decent restaurant meal each month.

Buyer Tips: Buying a Short Sale

Buying short sales is a different experience than buying in a non-distressed situation. Buyer expectations need to be modified accordingly. Sellers are not going to spend any money making the property attractive to buyers nor will they do repairs. Why? Because they have no incentive to do so. They are losing money no matter what, and any money they spend increasing the attractiveness of the house just adds to their losses.

So, as a buyer, if you want to avail yourself of the bargain price that short sales can offer, be ready to take the imperfections as part of the package. If you aren’t ready to do that, stick with voluntary sales, albeit at higher prices.

Buyer’s Tips: Short Sales

Buying short sales is a different experience than buying in a non-distressed situation. Buyer expectations need to be modified accordingly. Sellers are not going to spend any money making the property attractive to buyers nor will they do repairs. Why? Because they have no incentive to do so. They are losing money no matter what, and any money they spend increasing the attractiveness of the house just adds to their losses.

So, as a buyer, if you want to avail yourself of the bargain price that short sales can offer, be ready to take the imperfections as part of the package. If you aren’t ready to do that, stick with voluntary sales, albeit at higher prices.

Bonny-Bauer

Yesterday, in Seller’s Tips, I wrote about a pair of just-constructed houses nearThompson Rd, and area I choose to refer to as “Bonny-Bauer.” That is basically a combination of Bonny Slope and Bauer Woods, the other “Bauer” subdivisions, and the mostly newer construction in between. Today, I will provide all the numbers.

At the moment, there are 33 homes for sale at an average price of $509,000. The median price is $499,950 which suggests pretty good uniformity of neighborhood or a bell-curve (Normal Distribution) or perhaps both. The low price is $370,000 and the high price $760,000, a multiple of just over 2. That is another indicator of a desirable housing mix. The most expensive house is 4,450 sq. ft. and the least expensive 2,000 sq. ft. However, the largest house is 5,170 sq. ft. and the smallest only 1,150 sq. ft. That discrepancy makes the bells go off in my head.

The smallest house is perched atop 2 acres of dirt. In better times, a developer might be inclined to buy the property to subdivide into five or six lots, perhaps not even tearing down the house. At any rate, we know why the smallest house is not the least expensive, which is what we should expect.

The largest house includes about 400 sq.ft. of unfinished space which makes it a little closer in size to the most expensive. Both sit on large lots. The former is an extensive remodel of a 70s house, while the latter is mid-90’s that now has granite surfaces. It is interesting to me, although not significant, that the tax assessor values the larger home at $200,000 less than the smaller. While I am in agreement that the market is likely to value the smaller house at a higher $$/sq. ft. figure than the larger, the difference between $171/sq.ft. and $126/sq.ft. seems excessive to me. It will be interesting to see what the eventual selling prices are.

Home Owner’s Tip: Details Matter

Aside

As you read my posts, you could come to believe that price per square foot is all that matters. Or, at least, $$/sq.ft. compared to other houses near you. When buyers look at a house, the finishes and appointments are the first thing they see. For most buyers the kitchen is the most critical room. The kitchen needs to meet or exceed expectations for the price range of the house. A $500,000 house with formica counter tops is a hard sell unless it is very cheap relative to the neighborhood. Granite slabs are expected. Cabinetry needs to be up to date, and price-point appropriate. Appliances probably should stay with the house, and, for now, should be stainless steel.

The higher the price of the home, the greater the need for granite in the bathrooms. There, sellers may be able to “make do” with tiles rather than slabs, and in the “lower-upper” price range, ceramic tile may work.

Buyers react to design features, meaning colors, patterns seen in showers or on backsplashes. Generally, tans and creams are marketable. You need to be careful with greens and, unless you employ an interior designer, stay away from blues and oranges. An all white house may sound neutral (and may actually be neutral) but most buyers react poorly to snow-white interiors.

A few days ago, my interior designer and I went through a pair of new houses just off NW Thompson. They have nice territorial views from several rooms and are a very spacious 4,200 sq.ft. & 4,360 sq.ft. Priced at $529,000 & $550,000, they weigh in at a thrifty $126/sq.ft. The neighborhood asking price is $160/sq.ft. so the first question that pops into one’s mind is “Why haven’t they sold, already?”

Details are why — although some of the “details” are rather more like “problems.” The first impression as one walks through the door is a mixture of, “Feels spacious” and “These floors?!?” The houses both have 10 foot ceilings which are quite nice and increase the feeling of spaciousness. The floors are “pre-finished” hardwood, stained dark. Using pre-finished floors rather than finished in place saved the builder money, but the floors catch your attention in a bad way. I was put off by the deep grooves and the patent-leather-like high gloss; my designer’s response was, “Imagine how much dirt will accumulate in the seams.” The smaller & less expensive of the two then shows quite nicely on the main floor and upstairs. The finishes are good, the light-fixtures are nice and the selection of granite for the kitchen is color-appropriate for the rest of the main floor.

——BUT —-
The 800 sq.ft. daylight basement area is unfinished. There is a tub-shower, rough plumbing for a toilet & basin, and the sheetrock is up and taped. That leaves the buyer in the position of having to find workmen to carpet or tile, to install the plumbing fixtures and to add trim. The listing agent estimates that the costs will be $12,000 to $18,000. If we add $20,000 to the price, it becomes $549,000, still a thrifty $130/sq.ft. The larger house has a 950 sq.ft, unfinished daylight basement as well. If we add $25,000 for finishing it, the house would be priced at $132/sq.ft., still well below the neighborhood average of $160/sq.ft. and the prospective buyer would not be worried about getting it done. Or, to look at it another way, suppose the builder wanted to ask $150/sq.ft. for the houses, still below the usual price. That would translate to $630,000 and $653,000. That makes the return on investment about 5 to 1 for the smaller and 4 to 1 for the larger.

The larger house has other problems. The selection of granite for the kitchen leaves much to be desired, and the shade of green chosen for the trim is … well, slightly sea-sickening. The green trim runs throughout both floors. My designer was very unkind about the color selections in this house. And when we got to the master bath… Oh, My!

The bathroom floor was a love-it-or-hate-it Arizona Sunset on gray that coordinated with nothing in the house. The backsplash tile was patterned and was carried into the shower but (there’s that word again) the shower floor had a different pattern. The total effect was to make me feel like I was participating in some sort of test. Designer lady was vehement: she truly did not like the bathroom, not even a little bit.

While the houses sit, as they have for four months, interest on the building loan accrues. How much cheaper would it have been to (a) hire a designer, such as the one we use, and (b) finish the basement space? We will know in the fullness of time.

Case-Shiller Report for November 2011 (Yep, that’s the most current)

The seasonally adjusted numbers for November were not as encouraging as I had hoped. On both coasts, prices accelerated downwards a bit. In the non-coastal cities, all except Chicago showed shallower drops or absolute rises against last month’s numbers. The winner this month was Minneapolis, posting a gain in price of 2.67%. Also from the middle of the country, this month’s biggest loser [somebody oughta make a TV show named "Biggest Loser." Oh -- someone has.  :-) ] was Chicago, losing 2.59% of value. The charts:

Condos in The Pearl

The Pearl has 74 condos for sale at this moment. The range is from a $140,000 short sale, which is a 432 square foot unit, to a fabulous 2,600 sq. ft., 3 bedroom home with a view, and what a view! This jewel is on the market at $1,395,000.

The averages — remember to use averages with a great deal of caution — are an average size of nearly 1,400 sq.ft., an average price of some $565,000 and an average price per square foot of $406.

As usual, homes with better views command higher prices. Parking is hard to come by in or near the city center, including The Pearl, so you should be willing to pay more for a unit with a deeded parking spot, preferably in an underground or adjacent parking structure. Buildings with a concierge service don’t necessarily command a higher price than electronic passkey buildings, but they do add a bit to the HOAs. A good concierge service is very nice. You won’t care whether you have it until you need it, but when you need it…

During the past six months, 104 condos have sold which implies there is currently slightly more than a four month supply, a reasonably tight market. Properly priced units have taken about 3½ months to sell, so if you find a unit that is properly priced and you love it, keep price dickering to a minimum, lest another buyer take “your” condo.

 

Considering a New Home in Forest Heights?

Detached single family residences, as they are termed by the appraisal industry, are lovely in Forest Heights. Homes currently on the market range widely in price, as do Forest Heights condos. The range is from $399,000 to a handsome $1,499,000. The average listing price of $688,000 converts to an average price per square foot of $186. As much as make-believe statisticians like to talk about average prices, averages are often misused, especially in real estate.

Forest Heights supports a wide range of views, no small consideration for buyers of up-scale to high end homes. The differences can send price per square foot up or down by 15% or more. The intent of the developers was that each house should be unique and that the variety should contribute to the charm of the neighborhood. Interiors and interior finishes also vary. Consequently, buyers often look at several houses before they find their new homes. Average cost per square foot is a good starting point, but a buyer will want to use an expert to help him or her evaluate the asking price.

Homes in Forest Park that have been correctly priced have remained on the market about three months if brought to market in the past six months. During the entire past year, not the strongest real estate market of the past several years, properly priced homes have taken about four months to sell. One lesson a buyer should take away from these numbers is that if he or she finds a home that is a good fit, and if the hired expert thinks the price is “right,” the best move is to offer at or very near the asking price.

A word of caution: do not think you can buy an appraisal from a mortgage appraiser, which is the same as saying from an appraiser who does large numbers of cheap appraisals to make his living, and come away with a meaningful opinion. Mortgage appraisers, who may charge only $400 for a private appraisal, focus on “How many appraisals per day can I do.” When I was appraising for court, the question was whether I could manage as many as two appraisals per week. When appearing on the witness stand, thoroughness and quality matter more than how many.